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The history of computing has been characterised by an especially rapid pace of technological change, particularly with regard to the cost performance of the hardware. For example the price of computing power has steadily decreased by around a factor of ten every ten years. Whilst technological advances in hardware have resulted in reduced costs and have made many new applications possible, the very pace of change and its unevenness offset some of these gains and hinder progress. Whilst core technologies such as CPU size and speed have grown explosively, others such as peripheral devices and software development tools have grown only slowly. Consequently the changes in cost/performance ratios of computer hardware departments has not been matched by a corresponding increase in the cost-effectiveness in the development of software. The need to upgrade systems continually to keep pace with change has added to costs since upgraded hardware needs upgraded software and upgraded skills. Since new systems are run in parallel with old systems until fully tested and all staff retrained, running costs must include the cost of the new system, the cost of maintaining the old system, and the cost of establishing links between them and of maintaining those links for a time to allow a gradual replacement.
The technologies which encompass business data processing, telecommunications and office systems have developed independently and at different rates. Recent advances in digital communications and digital recording of sound and image have made their convergence technically possible but integration is complicated by the very different management traditions that have grown up around them.
In view of the importance of information and communications technologies to organisations, the economy, and society, governments with ‘Foresight Programmes’ have included the development of IT as a key area for analysis and prediction. Martin defines the ‘Foresight process’ as:
The process involved in systematically attempting to look into the longer term future of science, technology, the economy, and society with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic research and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits.
Foresight initiatives are now widespread throughout the developed world. For example, the Japanese Science and Technology Agency has been carrying out a series of long-term forecasts every five years since 1970 with the aim of providing a comprehensive, holistic overview of longer-term trends in technology and innovation. In 1988, the Dutch government launched its own Foresight programme, the objective of which was to provide information about emerging technologies that would have wide ranging potential applications for Dutch industry over the next five to ten years.
The UK launched its own Foresight initiative in 1993. Its overall objective was to enhance wealth creation and the quality of life in the UK. During 1994 and 1995, the UK government set up expert panels in fifteen sectors of the economy to predict key technology developments over the next ten to twenty years. The IT and Electronics (ITE) Foresight programme began in early 1993 and the final report was published in mid-1995. The expert panel was made up of 26 leading authorities from academia and industry. In consultation with other experts, the panel published a series of preliminary reports on key trends in the field. This was followed by a Delphi study involving 260 leading experts which aimed to validate important assumptions made in the initial report as well as obtaining a wide cross-section of expert opinion about the timing of key developments in IT markets and technologies. Subsequently, a series of focus group meetings/workshops were conducted where issues could be discussed in depth. The final stage involved assessing priorities and identifying key trends.
Robert Smith was born in New York City in 1956. He has spent more than 12 years working as a professor of English at New York University. He is always ineterested in helping students writing and editing their papers. Now he spends most of his time with his family and shares his Univesity experience in college research papers and sample essays.
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