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Red Zone Conversion percentage is one of those basic-box mark stats that has been around for so long, it's cushy to overlook it in today's 12-15 page NFL Gamebooks. You can find further details here http://casinosmap.net. It's a deceptively folksy, yet strong statisticteams that consistently convince Red Zone drives into touchdowns are the same teams that win sport, and protect spreads. Teams using sturdy rushing sport and tall, muscular receivers typically do well in the Red Zone, while teams that have nuisance throbbing the ball up the medium and don't have the corners of the end-zone staked out will be kicking field-goals more regularly than not.
The reality that a high RZC% has a manage correlation using both SU and ATS wins should come as no shocker to even the casual fan. What is more interesting; however, is that RZC% also serves as an superb tool in the prediction of hope outcomes when worn appropriately.
The nation of RZC% as a handicapping tool indeed becomes plain when we contrast how well one bunch has performed in the Red Zone while on fault, season-to-date, onto the percentage that their impending opponent has surrendered scores in the Red Zone over the same time phase. I actually evaluate match-ups of rival abusive and defending units in many different areas and for many situations to mold if one bunch has an help (AD for short) over the other that can be significant enough to touch the end findings versus the increase.
Before we can mold which bunch may or may not have an help, we requisite to know the league mean for the value in quiz. In this rationale, the league mean for converting drives that input the Red Zone into touchdowns is rudely 50%. then, if bunch A were to have a RZC% For (fault) of 55%, and bunch B was to have a RZC% Against (excuse) of 60%, this would effectively give bunch A a RZC%F AD of 15%. The formula would be:
(Team A's RZC%F - League Average) - (League mean - bunch B's RZC%A)
Which gives us: (55 - 50) - (50 - 60) = 15%.
When we merge bunch A's better-than-average fallout in the Red Zone ( 5%), desirable, bunch B's worse-than-average ability to defend in the Red Zone (-10%), bunch A tops up using a different help that they may be able to exploit if the two were to encounter head-to-head.
And that is wherein condition #25 hysterics in. The premise is this: because 2002, teams that have a RZC%F AD of > 7.5 are an humbling 161-98 (62.2%) ATS when they also have a RZC%A > 50 and an Above mean Rushing pastime Rating (this is ROF RDE). Not impressed? Let's put stuff into pecuniary termsif you had wagered $110 to win back $100 on apiece doll, you would have netted a tidy profit of $5,320 based on the fallout of these 3 different factors, over the bygone 7 seasons.
The last foremost provision for this condition involves looking at how regularly the modern opponent of the bunch in quiz surrenders a first-down in Short-Yardage situations on 3rd and 4th down (S3C%A). This applies to all 3rd-4th down drama using 2 or fewer yards-to-go. When we eliminate all opponents that have a worse-than-average (greater than 65%) S3C%A, the longest for this condition jumps to an incredible 104-37 ATS (73.8%).
There are 3 different resultant conditions (i.e., tighteners) that circular out this condition. resultant conditions routinely closeout solely a small percentage of sport from the puddle of NFL contests that join. One example would be to 'Exclude all Monday Night Games', or, in the rationale of this particular situationgames in Week 17 are not included when many of the high-level teams tortuous are resting players as well as any sport played preceding to Week 4. Teams in a condition wherein they may be 'looking ahead' to singing an opponent using a unbeaten percentage above .800 in their following doll are also eliminated.
Excluding sport in Week 17 makes perceive for this condition, but, one desires to be sensitive when with too many resultant conditions and stuff can get out of hand very briefly in this think. It's important that resultant conditions fit into the situation of the focal reason, or house blocks of the condition itself. Tightening this particular condition by removing sport in Week 9 solely, or teams that had closely 2 pre-season wins, are examples of out-of-context conditions that will solely assist to evasively magnify the win percentage and demote the situations latent for toning its bygone sensation in hope sport.
Here is the complete rewording for condition #25 and all it's allied stats.
(Notes: ASM stands for mean increase Margin and TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been tortuous in this condition at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the mean increase for teams in this condition.)
Situational Trend #25 hasty (Last Updated: Jan 15th, 2008)
Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) Red Zone Conversion% For help (RZC%F AD) > 7.5.
2) Red Zone Conversion% Against (RZC%A) > 50.
3) Above mean Rushing pastime Rating (AAVG RG).
4) Opponent S3C%A (OP S3C%A) < 65.
Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)
1) stop Week 17 and Week 0.800.
Situation Stats
ASM: 5.6
Home%: 50.4
Dog%: 45.0
TDIS%: 87.5
WT%: 66.1
SPR: -0.93
Top Teams: SD(20); KC(12); SEA(7); OAK(7)
Situation Records
Overall (Since '01): 100-26 ATS
2007 Season: 11-4 ATS
2006 Season: 6-2 ATS
2005 Season: 13-2 ATS
2004 Season: 26-5 ATS
Last 3 fallout. choose in Brackets.
2007 WK19--NE 31 JAC 20 (JAC 13) W
2007 WK18--JAC 31 PIT 29 (PIT 2.5) W
2007 WK16--SD 23 DEN 3 (SD -9) W
Zara Patterson works for Casinos Map. You can find further details here www.casinosmap.net.
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