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Finding good horses to bet at the race track is not as difficult as many people think. The free horse racing system described in this article is extremely easy for you to use. It will be profitable for anybody who has the initiative to follow through with the system’s simple rules.
I’m going to list the rules, and then I will tell you why the system works and critique its advantages and disadvantages.
The Three Rules
First: The race has to be a claiming race with the exception that it can’t be a maiden claiming race. The way to tell if the race is a claiming race is by looking at the race description at the top of the track program or in the past performances.
Second: Calculate each horse’s lifetime earnings per start (LEPS). Use this simple equation to calculate the LEPS: (lifetime earnings) / (lifetime starts) = (lifetime earnings per start). Look for the horse’s lifetime starts and earnings in the top right-hand corner of its listing in the past performances.
Third: Place a win bet on the horse with the highest earning per start over its lifetime if the horse’s closing odds are greater than or equal to 8-to-1.
The Reasons Why this Horse Handicapping System Works
Horses have different levels of ability. That is why there are different class levels in horseracing. If a horse is in good form, he will be an easy winner if he is dropped to a lower class level.
When a horse has met the requirements of these rules, he will certainly have been competitive at higher class levels in the past. These horses in general can not be competitive at their previous class level because they have suffered injuries. So they become “betting tools.” The trainers keep racing these horses because they are looking to use them to make money cashing large bets. The trainer knows that if the horse can get back to its original competitive level even for only one more race, it will be an easy winner against the cheaper field in the race today. So because of trainer manipulation, these horses do win and will win unexpectedly without showing any signs of improvement. Also because of trainer manipulation, these horses will usually pay huge odds.
Advantages and Weak Points Using this Method
This system is a big money maker over the long run and will usually return a profit of twenty to thirty percent per each dollar wagered. The biggest problem of the system is the percentage of wins that will only average from ten to fourteen percent. This means that when you start using this system you should expect to see many streaks of consecutive losers.
The number of consecutive losers you can expect from any handicapping method is determined by the system’s percentage of wins. If for example, let’s say you were to win around fourteen percent of the time, which is a fairly optimistic assumption for this system. You should expect to see at least one losing streak of 34 losers in a row in every series of 1000 wagers. So based on the assumption of 14% winners, we should also expect see 27 losing streaks of 10 or more losing bets in a row for each 1000 horses wagered. This would mean that you would be losing 10 or more consecutive losers about 37% of the time while betting the method.
Most horse players don’t realize that one of the most important factors to consider when evaluating any system is the percentage of winners. If you would prefer a system which has a larger percentage of winners than this method, please consider “The Indicator Handicapping Method” at turfanalyst.com, my website.
About the Author:
Mike Beale, also known as the Turf Analyst, is the inventor of the Indicator Handicapping Method. After thirty five years of handicapping, Mike brings a practical approach to handicapping race horses.
He has made available a free e-book on handicapping thoroughbreds which can be downloaded here:
turfanalyst.com
Also available is a supplement to this article at:
turfanalyst.com/betting-systems-horses.html
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